ECOCLUB, Issue 95
15
An interesting study of the amenity value of climate has been carried out by Maddisson (2001) who finds that British tourists are
attracted by climates which deviate little from an average daytime maximum of 29 degrees C.
The Future Climate:
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 3rd Assessment (2001) has shown that a rise in
maximum temperatures and an increase in the frequency of heatwaves and hot days is likely during the 21st century. The
Mediterranean will probably become less attractive for health reasons in the summer. Apart from the dangers increasingly
associated with skin cancer, many Mediterranean beach resorts may simply be too hot to be comfortable in the peak season, with
a much higher frequency of severe heat waves (Perry, 1987). Carter (1991) has used an approximate index of climatic
favourability to investigate changes of seasonal climate in Europe under possible future climate change. Results suggested that a
climate warming of 4 degrees C would lead to a shift in the optimum summertime climate from the traditional southern coastal
resorts northwards to currently less fashionable regions. This result holds true regardless of whether the warming is associated
with moderate decreases or increases of precipitation. Mieczkowski (1985) proposed a tourism climate index (TCI) as a means
of evaluating world climates for tourism. Whilst he used 5 climate variables in the TCI formulae thermal comfort was
considered the most important and given a 50% weighting.. Using the ACACIA A2 High scenario (Parry et al 2000) the index
was calculated for the recent good summer of 1995 and an average summer in 1999, together with the expected index value in
2020, 2050 and 2080 for the UK resort of Bournemouth. By the middle of the 21st century most summers are likely to have a
preponderance of very good, excellent or ideal days for the holiday-maker in the UK. However the attractiveness of the
Mediterranean coastal zone in spring and autumn would be enhanced relative to the present. It is in the months of October-
November that the lingering warmth and sunshine of the Mediterranean provides the biggest contrast with the weather in
northern Europe. At this season maximum temperatures at present are 8-10 degrees C higher than in London whilst in April this
difference is only 5-7 degrees C. (Rotmans, et al 1994) suggest that the area suitable for sun-related tourism will decline in
much of Italy and Greece as higher summer temperatures make beach tourism too uncomfortable. It is single-product beach
destinations that are likely to be most vulnerable.
Key sensitivities to weather and climate: Major holiday decisions within many of the “tourist exporting” countries of Northern
Europe are subject to a push and pull effect. The higher temperatures and settled weather of the Mediterranean summer exerts a
big attraction, but better summers at home will reduce overseas holiday bookings. Giles and Perry (1998) have shown that the
exceptional summer of 1995 in the UK led to a drop in outbound tourism and a big reduction in demand in the peak summer
season for Mediterranean package holidays. In hot years there is a suggestion that Dutch tourists too prefer domestic to foreign
beach holidays (WISE 1999). Large numbers of people indulge in short-term opportunistic decision–making and switch their
normal holiday preferences to take account of the unusually favourable conditions at home. Such limited evidence does suggest
that climate warming might alter the competitive balance of holiday destinations with adverse effects on high season tourism in
the Mediterranean. A limited survey of UK travel agents revealed that their customers most of all wanted guaranteed fine warm
weather. Press reports about adverse health conditions, terrorism threats and devastating forest fires were more likely to concern
customers than reports of very high temperatures.
Drought: The Spanish drought of the early 1990s showed how island resorts like Majorca could become dependent on water
being transported from the mainland with attendant political tensions (Wheeler 1995). In the last three decades there is evidence
of the wet season ending earlier and the dry season onset also occurring earlier. High natural variability of rainfall helps to mask
overall trends but endemic water scarcity is a very likely future scenario, especially south of 40 degrees north.
Small islands, for example in the Aegean, could be particularly affected if tourism is allowed to continue to grow and it might be
necessary to severely restrict tourist growth in such environments. Nicholls and Hoozemans (1996) have shown that in the
Mediterranean there are 162 islands exceeding 10 square km in size; most have a low resource base but significant tourist
development. Decline in rainfall and water supply availability, together with beach erosion could undermine their tourist
industries and hence their local economies. It has been suggested (Karas 1997) that Crete could experience serious water
shortages in 5 years out of 6 by 2010. There is likely to be an increase in friction, with a conflict of interest between local people
and tourist authorities on the use of scarce water. It has been calculated that a luxury hotel consumes around 600 litres of fresh
water per guest per night. Water-hungry land uses like golf courses and water parks will be seen as water-stealers by local
people. Projected decreases in runoff will exacerbate the problem of saline infiltration of water resources. Increased degradation
of the environment and spreading desertification is likely to make some areas less scenically attractive to tourists.
Comprehensive adaptation strategies, including re-use of waste water and high technology solutions such as desalination plants
or water grids are likely to be needed and would lead to greater intervention by government in tourism planning.
Heatwaves: Two major factors have interacted to impede the development of a definition of what a heatwave is, namely, the
absence of a simple meteorological measure representing the complex interaction between the human body and the thermal
environment, and the lack of suitable homogeneous time series of the meteorological variables likely to be involved (Robinson
2001). Should we use exceedance of fixed absolute values, or deviation from the normal local climate as the basis for a
definition? There are clearly several dimensions to very hot weather that need to be considered. Extended heat waves, defined
as 10 days or more, appear to be becoming more frequent in the Mediterranean. In the 15 years to 1994 Italy endured 8 such
heatwaves. In addition short-duration heat waves of 3-5 days with temperatures 7 degrees C or more above normal have
occurred on 33 occasions in the central Mediterranean between 1950-95. Individual heat wave days have increased from 52
days in the decade 1950-1959 to 230 in the decade 1980-1989 ( Conte, Soarani and Piervitali 1999). Heatwaves cause increases
in the death rate, especially in urban areas; for example in one episode from 13 July –2nd August 1983 in Rome, 450 deaths
above the normal average occurred. In 1987 more than 1100 residents died in Greece between 20-31st July (Katsouyanni et al
